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TAGS ECON, EINV, UK
SUBJECT: RBS EXECUTIVES SAY "MEA CULPA" - AND SHARE PLANS
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Classified...
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Getting richer does not make a country happier in the long run, according to the largest-ever review of the links between a...
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Major retailers have been forced to suspend online customers' deliveries – and in some cases even new orders – in Scotland as a result...
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Scotland had faced a "perfect storm" of snow and freezing conditions, the country's transport minister said, as the main motorway, the M8,...
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According to a document called Africa:US Versus UK Priorities, London Think
Tanks Comment published on a new Wikileaks website, Zimbabwe should and will
remain a top priority for the UK.
The original Wikileaks website was closed after the controversial leaks of
the classified documents and its founder, Julian Assange, has been described
as a "high tech terrorist" and is now being hunted by police on sex crime
charges.
However, it noted that President Mugabe's history of bombastic statements
had only served to solidify his status as a colonial liberation leader.
"From a strategic perspective, these analysts termed the United State's
focus on Zimbabwe as "surprising" because Zimbabwe was not a threat, but
largely a contained crisis. They said that Zimbabwe's crisis should be
treated as a regional issue, not an international one, and that the US
government should not sacrifice it's relations with South Africa, the more
strategic partner, over Zimbabwe, even if the political events in Zimbabwe
run contrary to the US government's democracy agenda."
They asserted that the international community's concern about Zimbabwe
being a regional destabiliser was largely unfounded, as most of the Southern
Africa Development Community (SADC) - especially South Africa - "can take
care of themselves."
Wikileaks has been releasing classified United States diplomatic cables sent
to and from US embassies in countries throughout the world. These cables
include orders sent out from the Department of State, embassy reporting
about the local governments and details of US government activities in each
country.
It has published 251,287 cables, originating from 274 embassies and dating
from 28th December 1966 to 28th February 2010. Of this total, 15, 652 of the
cables were marked Secret, 101,748 Confidential and 133,887 Unclassified,
although even the 'unclassified' documents contain sensitive information.
It said in its Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) that the motives for
releasing these documents were based on the US founding father James Madison
who famously said: "Knowledge will forever govern ignorance and a people who
mean to be their own governors must arm themselves with the power which
knowledge gives."
"This basic philosophy of the American revolution inspires all our work," it
said.
The cables appear to be the single most significant historical archive ever
released and affect basic and heartfelt issues all over the world;
geopolitics and democracy; human rights and the rule of law; national
resources and global trade.
US authorities have said the release may put people at risk.
Wikileaks said it had a four-year publishing history during which it had
released documents pertaining to over 100 countries. There was no report,
including from the US Government, of any of their releases ever having
caused harm to any individual.
It said as part of its review process, it requested the US State Department,
which had claimed to have conducted an extensive review of the material of
its own over the last few months, to provide the titles of the cables which
they should look at with extra care.
It said the State Department refused to provide that information, or
negotiate any other arrangement, suggesting that its desire to cover up at
all costs eclipses its bona fide desire to minimise potential harm.
The State Department gave its side of the correspondence to the New York
Times and elsewhere at the same time.
Instead of publishing the documents all at once, the organisation will be
releasing the embassy files in stages over the next few months.
"The subject matter of these cables is of such importance, and the
geographical spread so broad, that to do otherwise would not do this
material justice.
"We owe it to the people who entrusted us with the documents to ensure that
there is time for them to be written about, commented on and discussed
widely in public, something that is impossible if hundreds of thousands of
documents are released at once. We will therefore be releasing the documents
gradually over the coming weeks and months."
Wikileaks is staging the release of the embassy cables in order to maximise
the impact of their release and do justice to the source material. A later
phase of this release will involve working with partners in a far wider
selection of countries to ensure each country gets to see the real workings
of its government's relations with the USA.
It said it protected its sources. "We will not publicly comment on the
source of any of our releases, how the information was obtained, or on the
security measures used to protect sources identities. Our submission systems
are secure and anonymised."
The US embassy cables cover serious issues for every country in the world
with a US diplomatic presence.
"As far as knowledge about what is truly going on in the world can influence
our decisions, this material must result in political change and reform," it
said.
"One newspaper has alleged the cables might destabilise the Middle East.
These cables, by giving the players an unvarnished description of how they
are seen, there will be a common ground on which to effectively negotiate
peace and stability. We do not see this as a risk of destabilisation, but an
opportunity for stabilisation and reform in the Middle East.
Mugabe organised Rhodesian bombing of guerrilla camp to oust Sithole
Monday, 06 December 2010 08:52 Editor
By Manfred Jaeger, former Rhodesian Intelligence officer
I was recruited by Dieter Kranz, a STASI high ranking officer, in October 1977. At that time I was almost 20 and had already completed my initial training and a 21mth deployment with the Rhodesia Light Infantry. Kranz was a highly experienced intelligence operative and unlike most of his colleagues, abhorred torture and hated the Russians! I was reeling from the news that my best friend Staff Sergeant Nyanguwo, Rhodesian African Rifles (3 years my senior) had been killed in mysterious circumstances that aroused my suspicions that Rhodesian Intelligence agents had been responsible. Considering that only a couple of months earlier, he and I had been discussing our mutual serious misgivings with regard to the Rhodesian war-specifically considering the death and trauma being meted out upon innocent black villagers by both us and the ZANLA/Zipra combattants.
I had, upon learning of Nyanguwo's death, made strenuous attempts to find out the details of the so called "contact" that led to his death, particularly since his devastated parents and siblings had described to me his mutilated corpse (he died while I was in the bush so I heard about it some 3 weeks after he was buried). Shortly after I started asking questions, I was paid a visit, while on R&R by two Special Branch goons who wanted to know what my interest in Nyanguwo's death was. Suffice it to say that the "interview" did not go well and they left after having uttered threats of unspeakable action against "kaffir lovers" who stuck their noses where they didn't belong.
By the time I met Kranz, I was more than ready for, basically, revenge. He knew that and could read me like a book and by January 1978 I was in the then West Germany undergoing intensive Intelligence and Counter Intelligence training. West Germany was chosen for several reasons; firstly I was pro American and therefore not prepared to join the STASI proper. Secondly, Rhodesian Intelligence was keeping a careful eye on the typical patterns of other operatives/trainees and entering East Germany would have likely as not compromised my cover. Thirdly, as I was good with languages, Kranz had already organised cover employment with West German companies who sanctions busted and did business with the Rhodesians (Mercedes Benz, Mannesman, Deutz etc). As a result from July 1978 until July 1980 I travelled to and fro to Rhodesia, translating for the German businessmen and, as a white, seen as "sympathetic" to the Rhodesian cause I was able to get invited to various functions, obtained access to Officers' Messes, individual homes for "braais", and as a result succeeded in obtaining information that would then be relayed to ZANLA and ZIPRA Commands, via Kranz. I have no idea how many other whites were operating against the Rhodesians as I never met any of them.
Of interest though is that early on in my training, Kranz warned me never to trust even those ZANLA and ZIPRA commanders who interacted with the STASI and strongly advised me to avoid any contact with them. He continuously reminded me that to trust any of them would ultimately lead to my capture and death and not necessarily at the hand of the Rhodesians. When I expressed my curiosity at his insistence he gave me what he termed a "text book example" of what to beware of.
According to Kranz, Morrison Nyathi, a ZANLA cadre, had been a double agent feeding information to the Rhodesians as far back as May 1975. Apparently, the Rhodesians were careful to cover Nyathi by not immediately acting on certain information he passed on- ie. if he advised them of the imminent deployment of a unit of guerrillas, led by cadres, the Rhodesians would allow the unit to penetrate Rhodesia and even allow some attacks to take place before springing the trap to try to capture the cadres and force them to reveal even more sensitive information. ZANLA Command would simply assume that the unit in question had, as was commonly the case, been sold out or exposed itself. At that time, Ndabaningi Sithole was the overall head of ZANLA and had such able commanders as Tekere and Nhongo with him. According to Kranz, Mugabe, with an eye to getting Sithole out of the way, saw an opportunity to kill two birds with one stone.
The Liberation Struggle wasn't going so well, and as with all struggles, the International Community's interest was waning, as was it's willingness to fork out more money. It therefore occurred to Mugabe to strike a deal with Nyathi (Kranz claimed that Mugabe knew that Nyathi worked for the Rhodesians). He approached Nyathi and firstly disclosed that he was aware of Nyathi's activities. Nyathi, obviously denied all implications vehemently but nevertheless knew that he was in a very dangerous situation if rumours that he was a traitor were to leak. As a result, he listened to Mugabe's proposal, which, in effect suggested that they should work together to pull off an intelligence coup that would solve both of Mugabe's problems, in return for which Mugabe would look after Nyathi.
Thus it was that Nyathi briefed the Rhodesian intelligence liaison operatives, in great detail, about the danger that Nyadzonya base would present to Rhodesian security and the exact lay out of the base. Furthermore, the base commanders were misinformed to expect a combined Frelimo/Cuban delegation at any time on an inspection of the base.
The results of the Rhodesian attack, in August 1976, are undisputed with an estimated death toll of over 1300 combined guerrillas, support staff and civilians, including women and children.
The results for Mugabe were however even more spectacular, in that he had timed the operation to coincide with Sithole's absence from the ZANLA Command in Mozambique. As a result he was among the first to 'commiserate' with the survivors, vociferously denouncing the cowardly raid of the Rhodesians, all the while asking the ZANLA foot soldiers and Commanders whether they would not be better served by an overall Commander like him rather than an absentee one. International outrage was re-kindled and once again the coffers of the ZANLA and to a certain extent ZIPRA forces could look forward to replenishment.
Kranz explained that Nyathi, rather than being rewarded by either the Rhodesians or Mugabe, "disappeared" but follow up reports from other agents revealed to Kranz that the Rhodesians hadn't realised that they had been set up to attack Nyadzonya and truly missed Nyathi. Kranz's theory remained that Mugabe didn't like loose ends.
Having served until after Independence however, I saw no reason to continue and resigned to work in the private sector and finally return to my home country, Zimbabwe.
I have always followed the developments in Zimbabwe with great interest, while believing that as a member of a minority ethnic group I would leave politics to the majority. The emergence of the Movement for Democratic Change under Tsvangirai was something of a reminder to me of the real objectives of the Liberation Struggle which, thanks to the character of the man who has been "leading" the country for the past 30 years, have been forgotten.
What truly riled me is to hear self proclaimed "war veterans" spouting off about never accepting a leader who wasn't from the Liberation Struggle. I've known all along that Mugabe was no Commander. People like Tekere were the real men in command of the armed struggle and did an admirable job under trying circumstances. Mugabe has always looked out for himself, ruthlessly and selfishly.
With the fall of the East Bloc and the reunification of Germany the shroud of total secrecy surrounding the STASI and similar organisations gradually lifted. I was recently able (Dieter Kranz died before the Berlin wall came down) to access Kranz's files and was amazed and delighted to find that my mentor not only kept meticulous records of operations we worked on together but also had transcripts and tape recordings of meetings between Morrison Nyathi and other STASI operatives working on the Africa desk. One of these operatives is still alive today and was a wealth of information on the Mugabe/Nyathi coup that continued to have repercussions even in 1977 when in May-June of that year the Rhodesians repeated their Operation Maradon (An attack in October 1976 on Jorge do Limpopo) calling the operation Aztec and once again targeting Jorge do Limpopo.
I continue to research this in the hope that more evidence will come to light to a) show Zimbabweans and the International Community that Mugabe is no hero and b) bring him to book in the Hague.
However, whether the evidence comes to light or not, it is clear that we cannot make any progress whatsoever in Zimbabwe while Mugabe is allowed free reign. One way or the other, like Machel, he's got to go. We've played by "democratic" rules too long, it's time to get real and get tough.
I trust his colleagues will reflect on this at their next (imminent) Party congress.
Manfred Jaeger
Intelligence & Counter Intelligence Officer (Ret Col)
STASI Liaison
Mozambique/Angola/Rhodesia
January 1978 – July 1980
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The BBC is facing a backlash after England's failed 2018 World Cup bid, with its news website "inundated by comments" posted at a...
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President Robert Mugabe and Zanu PF argue that Western sanctions were the
largest contributor to the country's unprecedented economic collapse.
Keith Rockwell, the WTO director for information and external relations told
a workshop jointly hosted by the body and the Friederich Ebert Stiftung
Foundation that despite the restrictions, Zimbabwe can still sell its goods
and services to any country.
"As a member of the WTO, Zimbabwe is able to enjoy the rights of all
members," Rockwell said.
"What this means in practice is that WTO members cannot discriminate against
Zimbabwe's trade in goods and services."
"Zimbabwe has access to the dispute settlement system which means it can
defend its rights through our binding system of dispute resolution."
Rockwell said Zimbabwe was involved at every level of the WTO's discussions
on trade policy and ongoing Doha round of talks.
The United States and the European Union (EU) have repeatedly dismissed
accusations that the sanctions targeted at Mugabe and his inner circle were
behind Zimbabwe's economic collapse.
British Ambassador to Zimbabwe, Mark Canning on Tuesday told journalists in
Harare that the so-called sanctions impact one in every 70 000 of Zimbabwe's
population.
"They played no role in the economic chaos of the past, indeed if they did
how is it that the economy is now growing for the first time since 1997,"
Canning said.
"Would the UK really be pouring all this money into the country if it was
simultaneously undermining the economy at the same time?
Zimbabwe's trade promotion body, Zimtrade, has in the past called on local
businesses to be proactive on issues relating to international trade
agreements so that they can take advantage of export opportunities.
Some of the agreements, which are regulated by the WTO, are increasingly
determining the direction of global trade.
Rockwell said developing countries including Zimbabwe can take up trade
disputes with developed countries to the WTO for arbitration and win the
cases. At least 70% of WTO members are developing countries.
Meanwhile, participants at the workshop noted that all was not well in the
WTO as more developing countries were resorting to bilateral trade
agreements.
They attributed the growing phenomenon to the lack of progress in the Doha
round of negotiations.
Zimbabwe last year signed a bilateral trade agreement with South Africa and
is ready to sign another one with Botswana to enhance trade and investment
with its neighbours.
The experts said they foresee bilateralism becoming the preferred method of
business and trade between various countries in the regions as
multilateralism was getting more complex.
They said multilateralism involved serious power play between the bigger
nations.
"Many regional African organisations are moving towards deeper integration
in terms of trade and customs," said Prega Ramsamy, the head of Business for
Development Southern Africa Trust.
"Integration deepens political and regional co-operation, enhances export
and investment opportunities and increases market size and that's why we are
seeing a proliferation of regional agreements," he explained.
Deeper integration however, would mean yielding part of a county's power and
sovereignty to the regional institutions like Sadc.
Ramsamy said most African countries were not yet ready to compromise on
their sovereignty.
The 251 287 documents previously unavailable to the public and all of which are classified either confidential or secret focus on US policy and diplomatic relations between the world's sole superpower and countries in the Middle East, sub-Saharan Africa and elsewhere.
And below is a document filed by headquarters by the then US ambassador to Zimbabwe Christopher Dell in 2007. The document gives insights into US thinking and objectives on Zimbabwe as well as Washington's opinion about the leading political players in the southern African country:
Date 2007-07-13 10:04:00
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 HARARE 000638
SUBJECT: The End is Nigh
Classified By: Ambassador Christopher W. Dell under Section 1.4b/d
Having said my piece repeatedly over the last three years, I won't offer a lengthy prescription for our Zimbabwe policy. My views can be stated very simply as stay the course and prepare for change. Our policy is working and it's helping to drive change here. What is required is simply the grit, determination and focus to see this through. Then, when the changes finally come we must be ready to move quickly to help consolidate the new dispensation.
THE SITUATION
Robert Mugabe has survived for so long because he is more clever and more ruthless than any other politician in Zimbabwe. To give the devil his due, he is a brilliant tactician and has long thrived on his ability to abruptly change the rules of the game, radicalise the political dynamic and force everyone else to react to his agenda.
However, he is fundamentally hampered by several factors: his ego and belief in his own infallibility; his obsessive focus on the past as a justification for everything in the present and future; his deep ignorance on economic issues (coupled with the belief that his 18 doctorates give him the authority to suspend the laws of economics, including supply and demand); and his essentially short-term, tactical style.
While his tactical skills have kept him in power for 27 years, over the last seven this has only been achieved by a series of populist, but destructive and ultimately self-defeating moves. In reaction to losing the 2000 referendum on the constitution, a vengeful Mugabe unleashed his Green Bombers to commit land reform and in the process he destroyed Zimbabwe's agricultural sector, once the bedrock of the economy.
While thousands of white farmers saw their properties seized, hundreds of thousands of black Zimbabweans lost their livelihoods and were reduced to utter poverty. In 2005, having been forced to steal victory by manipulating the results of an election he lost, Mugabe lashed out again, punishing the urban populace by launching Operation Murambatsvina. The result was wholesale destruction of the informal sector, on which as much as 70-80 percent of urban dwellers had depended, and the uprooting of 700,000 Zimbabweans. The current inflationary cycle really began with Murambatsvina, as rents and prices grew in response to a decrease in supply.
And now, faced with the hyperinflationary consequences of his ruinous fiscal policies and growing reliance on the printing press to keep his government running, Mugabe has launched Operation Slash Prices. This has once again given him a very temporary boost in popularity especially among the police, who have led the looting of retail outlets and now seem well positioned to take a leading role in the black market economy) at the cost of terrible damage to the country and people.
Many small grocery and shop owners, traders, etc., will be wiped out; the shelves are increasingly bare; hunger, fear, and tension are growing; fuel has disappeared. When the shelves are still empty this time next week, the popular appeal of the price roll back will evaporate and the government simply doesn't have the resources to replace the entire private commercial sector and keep Zimbabweans fed. It may attempt to do so by printing more money, adding even more inflationary pressure on a system already reeling from the GOZ's quasi-fiscal lunacy combined with the price impact of pervasive shortages.
The increasingly worthless Zim dollar is likely to collapse as a unit of trade in the near future, depriving the Government of Zimbabwe of its last economic tool other than sheer thuggery and theft of others' assets.
With all this in view, I'm convinced the end is not far off for the Mugabe regime. Of course, my predecessors and many other observers have all said the same thing, and yet Mugabe is still with us. I think this time could prove different, however, because for the first time the president is under intensifying pressure simultaneously on the economic, political and international fronts.
In the past, he could always play one of these off against the other, using economic moves to counter political pressure or playing the old colonial/race/imperialist themes to buy himself breathing room regionally and internationally. But he is running out of options and in the swirling gases of the new Zimbabwean constellation that is starting to form, the economic, political and international pressures are concentrating on Mugabe himself.
Our Zanu PF contacts are virtually unanimous in saying reform is desperately needed, but won't happen while the Old Man is there, and therefore he must go (finding the courage to make that happen is another matter, however, but even that may be coming closer).
This is not some sudden awakening on the road to Damascus, but a reflection of the pain even party insiders increasingly feel over the economic meltdown. We also get regular, albeit anecdotal, reports of angry and increasingly open mutterings against Mugabe even in ZANU-PF's traditional rural bastions.
Beginning in March, the other SADC leaders finally recognised (in the wake of the terrible beatings of March 11 and the international outcry that followed another self-inflicted wound for Mugabe) that Zimbabwe is a problem they need to address.
Thabo Mbeki appears committed to a successful mediation and is reportedly increasingly irritated with Mugabe's efforts to manipulate him or blow him off altogether. If Mugabe judges that he still commands all he surveys by virtue of being the elder statesman on the scene, he may be committing yet another serious blunder.
Finally, one does well to recall that the only serious civil disturbances here in a decade came in 1998 over bread shortages, showing that even the famously passive Shona people have their limits. The terror and oppression of the intervening years have cowed people, but it's anyone's guess whether their fear or their anger will win out in the end.
WHAT WILL THE END LOOK LIKE?
This is the big, unanswerable question. One thing at least is certain, Mugabe will not wake up one morning a changed man, resolved to set right all he has wrought. He will not go quietly nor without a fight. He will cling to power at all costs and the costs be damned, he deserves to rule by virtue of the liberation struggle and land reform and the people of Zimbabwe have let him down by failing to appreciate this, thus he needn't worry about their well-being.
The only scenario in which he might agree to go with a modicum of good grace is one in which he concludes that the only way to end his days a free man is by leaving State House. I judge that he is still a long way from this conclusion and will fight on for now.
The optimal outcome, of course, and the only one that doesn't bring with it a huge risk of violence and conflict, is a genuinely free and fair election, under international supervision. The Mbeki mediation offers the best, albeit very slim, hope of getting there.
However, as Pretoria grows more and more worried about the chaos to its north and President Mbeki's patience with Mugabe's antics wears thin, the prospects for serious South African engagement may be growing. Thus, this effort deserves all the support and backing we can muster.
Less attractive is the idea of a South African-brokered transitional arrangement or government of national unity. Mbeki has always favored stability and in his mind this means a Zanu PF-led GNU, with perhaps a few MDC additions. This solution is more likely to prolong than resolve the crisis and we must guard against letting Pretoria dictate an outcome which perpetuates the status quo at the expense of real change and reform.
The other scenarios are all less attractive: a popular uprising would inevitably entail a bloodbath, even if it were ultimately successful; Mugabe's sudden, unexpected death would set off a stampede for power among Zanu PF heavy weights; a palace coup, whether initiated within Zanu PF or from the military -- in which Mugabe is removed, killed, exiled or otherwise disposed of, could well devolve into open conflict between the contending successors.
Similarly, some form of "constitutional coup" i.e., a change at the top engineered within the framework of Zanu PF's "legitimate" structures could well prove to be merely the opening bell in a prolonged power struggle. None of the players is likely to go quietly into the night without giving everything they have, including calling on their supporters in the security services. Moreover, experience elsewhere would suggest that whoever comes out on top initially will struggle, and more than likely fail, to halt the economic collapse. Thus, there is a good prospect of not one but a series of rapid-fire transitions, until some new, stable dispensation is reached.
The final, and probably worst, possibility is that Mugabe concludes he can settle for ruling over a rump Zimbabwe, maintaining control over Harare and the MaShona heartland, the critical forces of the National Reserve Force and CIO and a few key assets gold, diamonds, platinum and Air Zimbabwe to fund the good times. Under this scenario, the rest of the country, in one of the comrade's favorite phrases, could "go hang", leaving it to the international community to stave off the worst humanitarian consequences.
WHAT OF THE OPPOSITION?
Zimbabwe's opposition is far from ideal and I leave convinced that had we had different partners, we could have achieved more already. But you have to play the hand you're dealt. With that in mind, the current leadership has little executive experience and will require massive hand holding and assistance should they ever come to power.
Morgan Tsvangarai is a brave, committed man and, by and large, a democrat. He is also the only player on the scene right now with real star quality and the ability to rally the masses. But Tsvangirai is also a flawed figure, not readily open to advice, indecisive and with questionable judgment in selecting those around him. He is the indispensable element for opposition success, but possibly an albatross around their necks once in power. In short, he is a kind of Lech Walesa character: Zimbabwe needs him, but should not rely on his executive abilities to lead the country's recovery.
Arthur Mutambara is young and ambitious, attracted to radical, anti-western rhetoric and smart as a whip. But, in many respects he's a light-weight who has spent too much time reading U.S. campaign messaging manuals and too little thinking about the real issues.
Welshman Ncube has proven to be a deeply divisive and destructive player in the opposition ranks and the sooner he is pushed off the stage, the better. But he is useful to many, including the regime and South Africa, so is probably a cross to be borne for some time yet. The prospects for healing the rift within the MDC seem dim, which is a totally unnecessary self-inflicted wound on their part this time.
With few exceptions -- Tendai Biti, Nelson Chamisa -- the talent is thin below the top ranks. The great saving grace of the opposition is likely to be found in the Diaspora. Most of Zimbabwe's best professionals, entrepreneurs, businessmen and women, etc., have fled the country. They are the opposition's natural allies and it is encouraging to see signs, particularly in South Africa and the UK, that these people are talking, sharing ideas, developing plans and thinking together about future recovery.
Unfortunately, among the MDC's flaws is its inability to work more effectively with the rest of civil society. The blame for this can be shared on both sides (many civil society groups, like the NCA, are single-issue focused and take the overall dynamic in unhelpful directions; others, like WOZA, insist on going it alone as a matter of principle), but ultimately it falls to the MDC as the largest and the only true political party, to show the way.
Once again, however, these are natural allies and they have more reason to work together than fight against each other.
STAYING THE COURSE, PREPARING FOR CHANGE
If I am right and change is in the offing, we need to step up our preparations. The work done over the last year on transition planning has been extremely useful, both for stimulating a fresh look at our own assumptions and plans and for forging a common approach among the traditional donor community. But the process has lagged since the meetings in March in London and should be re-energised.
It is encouraging in this respect that USAID Washington has engaged the Mission here in discussing how we would use additional resources in response to a genuinely reform-minded government. I hope this will continue and the good work done so far will survive the usual bloodletting of the budget process.
The official media has had a field day recently whooping that "Dell leaves Zimbabwe a failed man". That's not quite how it looks from here. I believe that the firm U.S. stance, the willingness to speak out and stand up, have contributed to the accelerating pace of change. Mugabe and his henchman are like bullies everywhere: if they can intimidate you they will. But they're not used to someone standing up to them and fighting back. It catches them off guard and that's when they make mistakes.
The howls of protest over critical statements from Washington or negative coverage on CNN are the clearest proof of how this hurts them. Ditto the squeals over illegal sanctions. In addition, the regime has become so used to calling the shots and dictating the pace that the merest stumble panics them. Many local observers have noted that Mugabe is panicked and desperate about hyperinflation at the moment, and hence he's making mistakes. Possibly fatal mistakes.
We need to keep the pressure on in order to keep Mugabe off his game and on his back foot, relying on his own shortcomings to do him in. Equally important is an active U.S. leadership role in the international community. The UK is ham-strung by its colonial past and domestic politics, thus, letting them set the pace alone merely limits our effectiveness. The EU is divided between the hard north and its soft southern underbelly. The Africans are only now beginning to find their voice. Rock solid partners like Australia don't pack enough punch to step out front and the UN is a non-player. Thus it falls to the U.S., once again, to take the lead, to say and do the hard things and to set the agenda.
Hundreds, maybe thousands, of ordinary Zimbabweans of all kinds have told me that our clear, forthright stance has given them hope and the courage to hang on. By this regime's standards, acting in the interests of the people may indeed be considered a failure. But I believe that the opposite is true, and that we can be justifiably proud that in Zimbabwe we have helped advance the President's freedom agenda. The people of this country know it and recognise it and that is the true touchstone of our success here. DELL
During the past weekend whistleblower website WikiLeaks released 250 000
documents, consisting of US diplomatic and intelligence reports, to five
international newspapers, sending shockwaves through the international
diplomatic community.
Included in these documents is a report by US ambassador to Zimbabwe
Christopher Dell in 2007, marked "confidential", which sheds light on the US
strategy in Zimbabwe, as well as Mbeki's role.
It shows, for the first time, that Mbeki may not have been a neutral broker
during the negotiations process, which he was mandated by the Southern
African Development Community (SADC) to take charge of.
"Mbeki has always favored [sic] stability and in his mind this means a
Zanu-PF led GNU [government of national unity], with perhaps a few MDC
additions. This solution is more likely to prolong than resolve the crisis
and we must guard against letting Pretoria dictate an outcome which
perpetuates the status quo at the expense of real change and reform," Dell
wrote in his report.
Dell's report was written shortly after then-US president George Bush
declared Mbeki as his "point man in Africa".
Behind the scenes, MDC activists claimed that during the negotiations
process Mbeki had favoured president Robert Mugabe's Zanu-PF, but this is
the first time the issue is stated in official documents.
Flawed figure
In his assessment of MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai, Dell said he was the
"only player on the scene right now with real star quality and the ability
to rally the masses".
But, he said, Tsvangirai was a flawed figure.
"[He is] not readily open to advice, indecisive and with questionable
judgment in selecting those around him. He is the indispensable element for
opposition success, but possibly an albatross around their necks once in
power. Zimbabwe needs him, but should not rely on his executive abilities to
lead the country's recovery," Dell warned.
According to Dell, the amount of talented individuals in the MDC was
limited.
"With few exceptions -- [finance minister] Tendayi (sic) Biti and
[communications minister] Nelson Chamisa is the talent thin below the top
ranks. The great saving grace of the opposition is likely to be found in the
diaspora."
Dell pulled no punches when he assessed Mugabe.
"To give the devil his due, he is a brilliant tactician and has long thrived
on his ability to abruptly change the rules of the game. However, he is
fundamentally hampered by several factors: his ego and belief in his own
infallibility; his obsessive focus on the past as a justification for
everything in the present and the future; his deep ignorance on economic
issues (coupled with the belief that his 18 doctorates give him authority to
suspend the laws of economics, including supply and demand); and his
essentially short-term tactical style."
This is contrary to Zanu PF media reports cranking up the propaganda that
says "US expresses doubts on the PM".
"Morgan Tsvangarai is a brave, committed man and, by and large, a democrat.
He is also the only player on the scene right now with real star quality and
the ability to rally the masses. But Tsvangarai is also a flawed figure,
not readily open to advice, indecisive and with questionable judgment in
selecting those around him.
He is the indispensable element for opposition success, but possibly an
albatross around t heir necks once in power. In short, he is a kind of Lech
Walesa character: Zimbabwe needs him, but should not rely on his executive
abilities to lead the country's recovery.
Arthur Mutambara is young and ambitious, attracted to radical, anti-western
rhetoric and smart as a whip.
But, in many respects he's a light-weight who has spent too much time
reading U.S. campaign messaging manuals and too little thinking about the
real issues.
Welshman Ncube has proven to be a deeply divisive and destructive player in
the opposition ranks and the sooner he is pushed off the stage, the better.
But he is useful to many, including the regime and South Africa, so is
probably a cross to be borne for some time yet. The prospects for healing
the rift within the MDC seem dim, which is a totally unnecessary
self-inflicted wound on their part this time.
With few exceptions Tendayi Biti, Nelson Chamisa the talent is thin below
the top ranks.
The great saving grace of the opposition is likely to be found in the
diaspora. Most of Zimbabwe's best professionals, entrepreneurs, businessmen
and women, etc., have fled the country. They are the opposition's natural
allies and it is encouraging to see signs, particularly in South Africa and
the UK, that these people are talking, sharing ideas, developing plans and
thinking together about future recovery.
Unfortunately, among the MDC's flaws is its inability to work more
effectively with the rest of civil society. The blame for this can be
shared on both sides (many civil society groups, like the NCA, are
single-issue focused and take the overall dynamic in unhelpful directions;
others, like WOZA, insist on going it alone as a matter of principle), but
ultimately it falls to the MDC as the largest and the only true political
party, to show the way. Once again, however, these are natural allies and
they have more reason to work together than fight against each other.