provided by authorities in Harare and the International Monetary Fund (IMF),
a leading asset management firm has said.
Imara Asset Management firm said the southern African country's economy may
be as high as US$10 billion or double the $5 billion given as the value of
the economy by the IMF and Harare.
"We find it hard to understand why both the IMF and government are being as
cautious as they are," Imara chief executive John Legat said in a statement.
He added: "Their views give a rather sobering view of the economy rather
than an upbeat and exciting outlook for a country barely in its second year
of reform. That makes the current stock market capitalisation of 3.0 billion
look very cheap... the Zimbabwe economy is pumping!"
Imara has given a lead with investment facilitation into Zimbabwe and
provides regular updates to international investors.
Legat said: "We remain unconvinced and further don't believe the underlying
number used for the economy - US5 billion - is correct."
He added that the IMF believes Zimbabwe has an economy worth just over "US$5
billion, though it admits supporting data has "serious shortcomings".
To make his point Legat compares consumer spending in Zimbabwe - which once
had the second largest economy in the region after South Africa - with that
of neighbouring Zambia whose economy is valued at US$14 billion.
The two countries have populations of a similar size, but until its 'lost
decade', Zimbabwe's economy was about 50 percent bigger, he said.
According to the Imara boss Zambia's two biggest breweries reported sales of
$230 million last year, revenue at Delta Corporation, Zimbabwe's biggest
beer maker, totaled $324 million, he said.
This year, Econet Wireless, Zimbabwe's mobile-phone operator, expects
revenue of $500 million, while Zambians are expected to spend $280 million
with Zain Zambia, that country's biggest mobile-phone company, Legat said.
"According to the IMF and government, Zimbabwe's gross national product per
capita is US$450, which compares with Zambia at US$1,200 per head. Spending
patterns in both countries suggest the opposite!"
Significant Zimbabwean spending power is also indicated by food purchases
from the Innscor fast foods business, Colcom, National Foods and the Spar
retail chain. Imara estimates sales here at over US$1.1 billion a year.
"Excluding manufacturing and tourism, exports from agriculture and mining
might top 2.3 billion or higher in 2010," he said. "That's a bigger number
than the IMF forecast that includes manufacturing exports."
Finance minister Tendai Biti has revised the country's growth prospects this
year from 7 percent to 4.5 percent.
The economy registered its first growth in a decade last year after
President Robert Mugabe and Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai's power-sharing
government implemented measures, including the adoption of multiple
currencies that doused hyperinflation.
However economic experts as well as the IMF maintain that economy recovery
remains fragile because of the government's heavy dependence on imports and
increasing wage demands from unionists at a time the country does not have
access to balance of payment support.
The IMF and other multi-lateral lenders have refused to provide fresh loans
until Harare clears outstanding debts, while rich Western nations are also
reluctant to provide soft loans and grants, insisting the government must
first step up the pace of democratic reforms, do more to uphold human rights
and the rule of law. -- ZimOnline.
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